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ISSN 1054-8890
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Volume 11, Number 24
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July 5, 2000
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Copyright 1996, Latin America Data Base (LADB)
Latin American Institute, University of New Mexico
http://ladb.unm.edu
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Director: Rebecca Reynolds Bannister
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Editor: Carlos Navarro
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Staff Writers:
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Patricia Hynds, Robert Sandels
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In This Issue:
VICENTE FOX OF CENTER-RIGHT PARTIDO ACCION NACIONAL
(P.A.N.) WINS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
* Fox wins undecided voters
* PAN also sweeps congressional races
OPPOSITION PARTIES DEFEAT P.R.I. IN TWO GUBERNATORIAL
RACES & MEXICO CITY MAYORAL ELECTION
* PRD retains control over Mexico City
* PAN sweeps Guanajuato elections
* Morelos voters repudiate former PRI governor
POWER STRUGGLE THREATENS TO SPLINTER P.R.I.
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Politics & human rights
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VICENTE FOX OF CENTER-RIGHT PARTIDO ACCION NACIONAL
(P.A.N.) WINS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Mexican voters, citing a strong desire for change,
elected opposition candidate Vicente Fox Quesada of the
center-right Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) as Mexico's next
president. The July 2 election marked the end of the 71-year
tenure for the governing Partido Revolucionario Institucional
(PRI), which has held the Mexican presidency since 1929.
Fox, who will take office Dec. 1, also represented the
Partido Verde Ecologista Mexicano (PVEM) in a coalition called
Alianza por el Cambio.
Unofficial statistics from the Instituto Federal
Electoral (IFE) indicate that the PAN-PVEM candidate received
almost 43% of the vote, compared with about 36% for Francisco
Labastida of the PRI, and 16.5% for Cuauhtemoc Cardenas of the
center-left Partido de la Revolucion Democratica (PRD).
Cardenas was also representing four small leftist
parties, the Partido del Trabajo (PT), the Partido Alianza
Social (PAS), Convergencia Democratica (CD), and the Partido
de la Sociedad Nacionalista (PSN). The leftist coalition was
called Alianza por Mexico.
The remainder of the vote was divided among Gilberto
Rincon Gallardo of the Partido de la Democracia Social (PDS),
Manuel Camacho Solis of the Partido del Centro Democratico
(PCD), and Porfirio Munoz Ledo of the Partido Autentico de la
Revolucion Mexicana (PARM). Munoz Ledo received some votes
even though he withdrew from the race before the election to
support Fox's campaign.
Fox wins undecided voters
Fox's margin of victory was greater than expected because
he was able to sway undecided voters. In many public-opinion
polls taken a week before the election, Fox and Labastida were
in a statistical dead heat. But those polls had not taken
into account the undecided vote, which at that time
represented 20% of registered voters.
Fox also benefitted from a relatively strong voter
turnout in almost all regions of the country. An estimated
65% of Mexico's 59 million registered voters participated in
the election. This translates to about 38.35 million voters.
The percentage of participation was lower than in the 1994
election, when 77% of registered voters cast a ballot. But
only 45.7 million Mexicans were registered to vote in 1994,
meaning 35.18 million votes were cast in that election. In
addition, reforms enacted by the IFE during the past six years
included creating a more accurate voter list to eliminate
duplications. This means the 1994 voter-registration numbers
may have been somewhat inflated.
The IFE also implemented several measures to facilitate
voting and increase confidence in the vote tabulation on
election day (see SourceMex, 2000-06-28). As a result, this
year's elections were generally the most open and orderly in
recent years, with only a handful of complaints reported to
the IFE.
"Abstentionism was soundly defeated," said an editorial
by the daily newspaper El Universal. "This reflected the
people's confidence in our institutions to promote a peaceful
democratic transition."
Many voters who responded to exit polls said they cast
their ballots for Fox because of his promise to end the
institutional corruption that had become so common with
successive PRI administrations.
"We must reflect on the mandate that Vicente Fox received
for the 2000-2006 presidential term," an editorial in the
daily newspaper La Jornada said. "This is a clear mandate to
end the vices, excesses, and distortions of a corrupt system
and not to resurrect this system under a different party
label."
Fox has yet to offer any specific plan to overhaul the
authoritarian system developed by the PRI, which has
controlled politics at all levels in Mexico.
"But while Fox campaigned on a platform of change, he has
offered no blueprint on how he plans to dismantle and reform
a deeply entrenched system in which the government and the
party have become almost indistinguishable," said The
Washington Post.
PAN also sweeps congressional races
In addition to sweeping the presidential election, the
PAN made significant gains in the Chamber of Deputies and the
Senate. Unofficial estimates from the IFE's Programa de
Resultados Electorales Preliminares (PREP) indicate the PAN-
PVEM is expected to control 224 of the 500 seats in the lower
house, which the coalition won either through direct elections
or in the distribution of seats based on the proportion of the
vote. The PAN held only had 133 representatives in the
Chamber of Deputies after the 1997 mid-term election, while
the PVEM had eight seats.
The PRI's poor performance in the election relegated the
party to being the second force in the Chamber of Deputies
with 209 seats. The PRI held 232 seats after the 1997
election.
The PRD and its four coalition partners will control 67
seats in the lower house. The PRD held 115 seats after the
1997 election, with another seven posts held by the PT.
The three other minor parties that participated in the
election failed to receive the required 2% of the vote to
qualify for any of the seats distributed through proportional
representation. One of the three parties, the PDS, barely
missed the cutoff, obtaining 1.9% of the vote. Some analysts
had expected the PDS to qualify for at least one seat, based
on the strong performance of its presidential candidate Rincon
Gallardo in the first presidential debate in April (see
SourceMex, 2000-05-03).
In the Senate, the PAN won a small majority of the seats
up for direct election or for distribution under proportional
representation. But only two-thirds of the 128 Senate seats
were open this year because elections in the upper house are
staggered. This will leave the PRI with 58 Senate seats,
compared with 53 for the PAN-PVEM and 17 for the PRD and its
four partners.
Even though the PRI now holds a simple majority in the
Senate, the party will have fewer seats when the next session
convenes in September. In contrast, the PAN will increase its
numbers in the Senate by 22 seats, although a handful of these
will be shared with the PVEM. The same is true for the PRD,
which will have to allocate seats to the PT, CD, and one of
the two other partners. (Sources: Associated Press, 07/02/00,
07/03/00; Reuters, 07/03/00; The Dallas Morning News, La
Jornada, El Economista, Reforma, Novedades, The Washington
Post, The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, 07/03/00,
07/04/00; El Financiero, Proceso, 07/04/00; El Universal,
07/03/00, 07/05/00; Excelsior, 07/03-05/00)
OPPOSITION PARTIES DEFEAT P.R.I. IN TWO GUBERNATORIAL
RACES & MEXICO CITY MAYORAL ELECTION
The Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) lost more
than the presidency and control of the Congress in the July 2
federal elections, also suffering a resounding defeat in the
gubernatorial and state legislative races in Guanajuato and
Morelos states, and in the mayoral election in Mexico City.
The PRI also lost the state legislative elections in
Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, Sonora, and Mexico state. But the
party was able to win a majority in the state legislative
races in Colima, San Luis Potosi, and Campeche states.
The PAN, meanwhile, won mayoral elections in several
large cities, including Monterrey, Hermosillo, Toluca, San
Luis Potosi, and Queretaro. But the party lost the mayoral
race in the capital city of Guanajuato to the center-left
Partido de la Revolucion Democratica (PRD).
PRD retains control over Mexico City
The PRD retained control of the mayoral seat in Mexico
City in a closer-than-anticipated race.
PRD candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who had been
leading in public-opinion polls by as much 10 points, obtained
36% of the vote. Columnist Sergio Sarmiento said some
forecasters had projected Lopez Obrador to win the election by
a wider margin than the 48% received by Cuauhtemoc Cardenas in
1997.
But the PRD candidate faced an unexpectedly strong
challenge from Santiago Creel of the center-right Partido
Accion Nacional (PAN), who had been running in third place in
most pre-election polls. Creel, who received 33% of the vote,
apparently benefitted from the strong showing of fellow PAN
member Vicente Fox in the presidential race. Fox won the
presidential race with 43% of the vote (see other article in
this issue of SourceMex).
The biggest loser in the Mexico City election turned out
to be PRI candidate Jesus Silva Herzog, who received only 22%
of the vote.
The PRI's poor showing in the capital was also reflected
in the elections for seats in the Mexico City legislature
(Asamblea Legislativa del Distrito Federal, ALDF). The
governing party failed to win even one of the 40 seats up for
direct election. But the PRI is assured of some
representation in the 66-seat ALDF, since the party will
receive five of the 26 at-large seats allocated on the
percentage of votes received by each party.
The PRD and its coalition partners split the directly
elected seats with the alliance formed by the PAN and the
Partido Verde Ecologista Mexicano (PVEM).
Initial statistics released by the Instituto Electoral
del Distrito Federal (IEDF) had the PRD-led coalition taking
22 seats and the PAN-PVEM 18 seats. But this trend was
reversed after late ballots were counted. As of late July 4,
the PAN-PVEM was leading in 21 districts, and the PRD
coalition in 19.
The final count will have a bearing on the control of the
ALDF, since this will determine the number of at-large seats
allocated to each coalition. Regardless of how many seats
each party receives, mayor-elect Lopez Obrador will not have
the large majority in the ALDF enjoyed by Cardenas following
the 1997 election. In that election, the PRD won 38 of the
electoral districts (see SourceMex, 1997-07-09)
PAN sweeps Guanajuato elections
The center-right Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) won
resounding victories in the gubernatorial, legislative, and
mayoral races in Guanajuato, home state of president-elect
Vicente Fox.
The Instituto Estatal Electoral de Guanajuato (IEEG)
reported extremely high voter turnout, with 85% of the state's
registered voters casting ballots.
PAN candidate Juan Carlos Romero Hicks won the governor's
race in a landslide, taking about 58% of the vote. Romero
defeated Juan Ignacio Torres Landa of the PRI and Miguel
Alonso Raya of the center-left Partido de la Revolucion
Democratica (PRD). Alonso Raya was also representing the
Partido del Trabajo (PT) and the Partido Alianza Social (PAS).
The PAN won all 22 directly elected seats for the state
legislature. The PRI and PRD-PT-PAS alliance will gain a
voice in the legislature through distribution of seats
allocated on the proportion of the vote received.
The PAN also swept a majority of mayoral elections in the
state, scoring victories in the major cities of Leon,
Irapuato, Salamanca, Silao, and Celaya. However, the PRD won
the mayoral election the capital city of Guanajuato.
Morelos voters repudiate former PRI governor
The PAN also scored major gains in the Morelos election,
in what was widely considered a repudiation of former governor
Jorge Carrillo Olea.
PAN candidate Sergio Estrada Cajigal won the
gubernatorial election by a landslide, obtaining more than 54%
of the votes cast, compared with slightly less than 27% for
Juan Salgado Brito of the PRI and 13% for Raul Irragorri of
the PRD. Irragorri was also representing the PT, the PAS, and
the Partido del Centro Democratico (PCD).
Estrada Cajigal, the grandson of former Morelos governor
Vicente Estrada Cajigal, said he owed his victory in large
measure to the "poor government" of Carrillo Olea.
Carrillo, a PRI member, was impeached by the state
legislature for abuse of power. He was accused of condoning
prisoner torture, protecting drug traffickers, and violating
state and federal constitutions in nominating candidates to
high posts (see SourceMex, 1998-04-22, 1998-05-20).
The federal Supreme Court (Suprema Corte de Justica de la
Nacion, SCJN) has upheld the state legislature's impeachment
of Carrillo. The impeachment statutes do not subject the
former governor to criminal charges, but would bar him from
taking another public office for 12 years (see SourceMex,
2000-03-01).
In the state legislature, the PAN won 10 of the 18
directly elected seats, while the PRI was victorious in the
other eight races. The PRD and its three partners were unable
to win a single seat, but should receive one or two of the at-
large seats allocated on percentage of the vote each party
receives.
The PRI won 16 mayoral elections, including Cuautla,
which had been governed by the PRD. The PAN won elections in
eight cities, retaining the seat in Cuernavaca. (Sources:
Proceso, 06/25/00; Associated Press, 07/02/00; El Universal,
El Economista, Notimex, 07/03/00; Novedades, 07/03/00,
07/04/00; The News, 07/04/00; Reforma, Excelsior, La Jornada,
07/03-05/00)
POWER STRUGGLE THREATENS TO SPLINTER P.R.I.
The future of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional
(PRI) remained very much in doubt days after the party's
disastrous performance in the July 2 election.
Different factions of the PRI began battling for control
of the party at a special session called on July 4 to elect
new leaders following the resignation of the entire executive
committee (Comite Ejecutivo Nacional, CEN).
The CEN, led by president Dulce Maria Sauri Riancho, had
presented its resignation July 3, the day after the party
suffered a near total loss. Sauri and secretary-general
Esteban Moctezuma were appointed to their positions in
November, specifically to lead the campaign of defeated
candidate Francisco Labastida Ochoa (see SourceMex, 1999-12-
08).
The PRI not only lost the presidential race to Vicente
Fox Quesada of the center-right Partido Accion Nacional (PAN),
but also suffered major defeats in congressional,
gubernatorial, and state electoral races (see other articles
in this issue of SourceMex).
But the party structure remains in place, which will
ensure its survival in the short term. "[The PRI] has too
much power to disappear overnight," said syndicated columnist
Sergio Sarmiento. "The party remains in control of the
governor's seats in 19 states and still has a substantial
presence in Congress."
The party's poor performance on July 2 appeared to pave
the way for the party's old guard, known as the dinosaurs, to
seek to regain party control. The old guard, led by former
Puebla governor Manuel Bartlett Diaz, is trying to impose
outgoing Tabasco Gov. Roberto Madrazo Pintado as the party's
new leader. Madrazo lost a bitter primary election to
Labastida in November 1999 (see SourceMex, 1999-11-10).
But many other PRI loyalists, uncomfortable with handing
the leadership to the old guard, are expected to block
Madrazo's candidacy and propose their own candidates. Other
potential candidates include Esteban Moctezuma, Campeche Gov.
Antonio Gonzalez Curi, and former Mexico State Gov. Emilio
Chuayffet.
The various factions at the PRI gathering were united,
however, in rejecting the three candidates thought to be
favored by President Ernesto Zedillo: former Hidalgo Gov.
Jesus Murillo Karam, defeated presidential candidate Francisco
Labastida, and federal Deputy Beatriz Paredes Rangel.
"Some groups think they don't want a leader who seems to
reflect the president," said Javier Trevino, a former finance
secretary and Labastida campaign officer. "They want this to
be more of a party decision."
Resentment against Zedillo is growing among many PRI
loyalists, who blame the president for the party's poor
performance in the July 2 election. They hold the president
responsible for eliminating the system of big-government
paternalism, which helped keep the PRI in power for many
years, and for pushing through the electoral reforms that
opened the door for opposition parties to gain control of
Congress and Mexico City in 1997 and the presidency in 2000.
Some PRI officials were also angry at Zedillo's decision
to quickly recognize Fox's victory. "The PRI is offended by
Zedillo's decision to keep a healthy distance from the
campaign and later to recognize our defeat, which no one asked
him to do," said Efren Leyva, a member of the PRI's state
executive committee in Chiapas state.
Sauri, who agreed to remain president until a new leader
is appointed, has created a special committee to develop a
strategy to propose comprehensive long-term reforms for the
PRI. The committee will include PRI governors, state party
leaders, and the coordinators of the party's congressional
delegation in Congress.
Some PRI members acknowledge the party will have to
undergo a total transformation to have a chance to regain the
trust of Mexican voters. "We can't promise change and then
give people the same faces over and over again," said
Francisco Guerrero, at 17 the youngest member of the PRI
executive committee. "A new generation must take over the
party. We can't keep recycling the same old people."
Many analysts agree with this assessment and emphasize
that the PRI cannot go back to the practices that kept the
party in power for so many years.
"The Mexican people were fed up with a political system
that had become authoritarian and corrupt, and which was
sustained by its complicity with financial and economic
special interests and drug traffickers," said political
commentator Luis Javier Garrido in a piece published in the
weekly news magazine Proceso.
Political commentator and historian Lorenzo Meyer
compared the recent PRI loss to the theory behind the demise
of dinosaurs. "The environment changed," Meyer said in his
column in the daily newspaper Reforma. "They couldn't
withstand the change in habitat." (Sources: Reuters,
07/03/00, Associated Press, 07/03/00; Proceso, The Washington
Post, 07/04/00; Excelsior, La Jornada, Novedades, Reforma, The
New York Times, Los Angeles Times, 07/04/00, 07/05/00; El
Universal, El Economista, The Dallas Morning News, 07/05/00)